The Perfect March Madness Bracket

If you’ve ever filled out a March Madness bracket for the NCAA tournament, you probably realize that you aren’t super likely to pick all of the games perfectly. See how bad your chances are here.

BADGING:

Read the article linked above. Answer the following questions in a couple of sentences each.

  1. How do we arrive at the odds of 1-in -9.2 quintillion? Explain the mathematics that gives that large of an answer.
  2. One mathematician actually estimates that your odds are between 1-in-10 billion and 1-in-40 billion. Explain why he feels that you have these slightly better odds than the original 1-in-9.2 quintillion.
  3. Using the national accuracy of 66.7% when picking first-round games, and assuming we could continue that success rate over the course of the entire tournament, what are the odds of picking a perfect bracket?
  4. Over the past 8 years of bracket challenges, winners have averaged picking 49.8% of games correctly. Using that percentage and the techniques you saw used in the first three questions, what are the odds of a winner predicting a perfect bracket?

Thanks to Hugo W. for suggesting this badge!

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